Have Middle East Oil Flows Rebounded to 15 Million Bpd as US Claims

Oil prices moved higher Monday, with the United States Oil Fund (AMEX:USO) climbing 2.91% to 130.29 dollars, as traders weighed conflicting claims over whether Middle East flights and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have truly returned to normal. The fund now sits well above the middle of its 52 week range of 102.42 to 142.33, with an RSI of 57.21 suggesting momentum without yet flashing overbought.

In Brief

• USO rose 2.91% to 130.29 dollars, trading within its 52 week range of 102.42 to 142.33.
• U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright claims Middle East oil exports hit 15 million barrels per day, topping pre war levels of 20 million bpd on one recent Sunday.
• Ship tracking firms including Kpler estimate actual flows near 9 million to 10 million bpd, a gap of 3 million to 5 million bpd from official claims.
• The EIA says Hormuz traffic remains severely constrained and expects that to persist through August.
• U.S. gasoline prices remain above 4 dollars a gallon, the highest August average on record.

Have Middle East flights resumed, and what does that mean for tankers?

The question of whether Middle East flights have resumed is tangled up with a bigger dispute over oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Wright said this week that exports from the region rebounded to 15 million bpd, and that Sunday traffic alone exceeded the pre conflict average of 20 million bpd. Vessel tracking firms are not buying it. Kpler and other commodity analysts say the numbers they see from tanker loadings and regional traffic simply do not match the secretary's figures, with Kpler's Matt Smith telling reporters there is no way to reconcile what he calls a stark gap in the data.

Reuters columnist Clyde Russell compiled tracking data showing only about 9 million bpd leaving the Middle East through all its export channels so far this month, well short of the 15 million bpd figure. For flows specifically through Hormuz, private tracking companies put the number at up to 5 million bpd at best, versus a pre war norm that ran much higher.

Why the numbers do not line up

Wright has defended his figures by saying the Department of Energy, working with the U.S. military, maintains what he calls the best available data on oil leaving the Arabian Gulf. He argues private trackers undercount vessels that move covertly through the strait, a phenomenon known as dark fleet activity. He has not disclosed how the government's data is gathered or verified, which leaves outside analysts unable to check the claim against his methodology.

Even the U.S. Energy Information Administration is more cautious than Wright. Its latest Short Term Energy Outlook describes Hormuz traffic as severely constrained and assumes that condition holds through August. That is a notably different tone than the secretary's public statements, and it raises the question of whether Washington is seeing genuinely different data or simply framing the same numbers more optimistically.

Political pressure and gasoline prices

There is an obvious incentive for the administration to talk up a return to normal shipping. Gasoline has stayed above 4 dollars a gallon nationally, and AAA said this week that crude prices are keeping pump prices elevated for this point in the year even as demand softens. GasBuddy's Patrick de Haan noted that going back to 2008, this is the most expensive gasoline has ever been on August 13, compared with 2.13 dollars a gallon on the same date in 2016. With midterm elections in November, officials have reason to project confidence that oil flows, and by extension prices, are stabilizing.

What happens next in the flow of Middle East oil

Russell notes that the real test comes over the next five to six weeks, once the oil supposedly leaving the Middle East starts showing up in import figures across importing countries. If Wright's numbers hold, customs and port data in Asia and elsewhere should confirm it. If the gap persists, it will support the tracking firms' more conservative estimates. There is a chance vessel trackers are underestimating volumes because of increased dark fleet activity, but it is just as plausible that Washington is projecting a rosier outcome than the ongoing deadlock in U.S. Iran talks actually supports.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is middle east flights resumed?

Officials say oil export flows have returned to or above pre war levels, but independent ship tracking data shows volumes still running well below that claim, so the picture remains unresolved.

Does middle east flights resume?

Partial normalization has occurred, but tracking firms estimate flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain roughly half of what U.S. officials describe as fully recovered.

Will middle east flights resume?

Analysts expect further gradual recovery if U.S. Iran negotiations progress, though the EIA currently assumes constrained traffic will continue through August.

When middle east flights resume?

There is no confirmed date. Import data in the coming five to six weeks should reveal whether export volumes actually match official claims.

When flights to dubai will resume?

The source data does not address Dubai specifically; it focuses on oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rather than commercial aviation schedules.