Oliver Davis
The term "big head oil" is really shorthand for a familiar boom cycle in the energy patch: when crude prices spike hard and fast, the largest oil companies post outsized profits almost overnight. That pattern is playing out again in 2025 earnings, and it has put fresh political pressure on Big Oil even as investors watch sector proxies like the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF for clues on where things head next.
The trigger this time was the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which sent crude to a four year high and rattled global supply chains during the second quarter. ExxonMobil and Chevron are both projected to have roughly tripled their profits from the first quarter to the second, according to analyst estimates compiled by LSEG. Exxon is expected to report adjusted net income near $15.9 billion, while Chevron's figure is pegged at close to $10 billion. Those would be the strongest quarterly results for Big Oil since 2022, the last time oil breached the $100 a barrel mark following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Why the Big Head Oil Story Keeps Repeating Itself
Crude spiking, inventories draining and refiners scrambling: this is the same script that played out three years ago, just with a different geopolitical trigger. Back then it was the war in Ukraine. This time it was the Strait of Hormuz disruption tied to conflict involving Iran. In both cases, Big Oil's quarterly results ballooned as prices surged, and in both cases the companies found themselves accused of profiteering.
What is different in 2025 is the source of the pressure. It is coming from President Donald Trump, who has generally favored the oil industry but is now demanding gasoline prices fall to $2.25 to $2.50 per gallon
Tara Burke
Logan Ruiz